Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 30.465820 32.744528 35.201924 38.065242 41.330869 44.964899 49.351155
2025-04-20 27.688738 30.876972 34.537670 39.114202 44.775341 51.680760 60.962611
2025-04-27 25.983771 29.689821 34.129041 39.961843 47.625997 57.676946 72.479687
2025-05-04 24.561391 28.583993 33.561003 40.362750 49.755083 62.867029 83.871195
2025-05-11 23.140830 27.303582 32.582150 40.020353 50.709731 66.433938 93.569399
2025-05-18 21.864119 26.081873 31.537186 39.420541 51.137746 69.179936 102.519826
2025-05-25 20.722766 24.944102 30.494299 38.686624 51.221064 71.319682 110.895243
2025-06-01 19.755597 23.968977 29.589656 38.045441 51.330713 73.460749 119.843788
2025-06-08 18.792353 22.940880 28.538072 37.086151 50.805736 74.387419 126.529968
2025-06-15 18.554431 22.881417 28.830283 38.148810 53.663430 81.854863 150.748051
2025-06-22 17.986109 22.329565 28.376219 38.011411 54.463814 85.566669 167.554447
2025-06-29 17.337421 21.632439 27.668206 37.412106 54.378208 87.473494 180.377938
2025-07-06 16.562409 20.742488 26.658067 36.301781 53.344469 87.406122 187.994310
2025-07-13 16.388259 20.702035 26.907284 37.258914 56.214859 96.437739 232.139253
2025-07-20 16.180452 20.598893 27.049559 38.041549 58.857332 105.704214 288.252017
2025-07-27 15.887990 20.355719 26.958518 38.411288 60.730542 113.653035 351.135399
2025-08-03 15.459647 19.892272 26.497735 38.095518 61.153927 117.920664 402.502497
2025-08-10 15.006694 19.374729 25.926594 37.542019 61.009642 120.595676 450.076598
2025-08-17 14.554257 18.842365 25.308768 36.864195 60.524381 122.191354 494.776220
2025-08-24 14.145642 18.362996 24.756280 36.271494 60.166540 124.127984 549.655798
2025-08-31 13.697094 17.809808 24.064358 35.383820 59.065649 123.514999 580.307513
2025-09-07 13.653669 17.871825 24.370756 36.367080 62.338214 138.243048 871.766249
2025-09-14 13.392736 17.589908 24.099813 36.240024 63.001243 144.332045 1107.677287